Nigeria’s aviation industry is facing growing concerns over stagnant passenger traffic despite a steady increase in the number of airlines operating in the country, raising fresh questions about the long-term sustainability of the domestic air transport market.
Latest industry data show that combined domestic and international passenger traffic has remained just above 15 million over the past five years, even as the number of scheduled operators has expanded significantly. While Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s second-largest domestic aviation market in 2025 with more than 10.5 million passengers, the figures reveal a declining trend in domestic travel despite increased airline capacity.
Data released by the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), citing the Airports Council International (ACI) Africa, show South Africa remained the continent’s largest domestic market with more than 28 million passengers, followed by Nigeria with 10.5 million. Egypt recorded 7.1 million passengers, Kenya 4.1 million, Morocco 3.8 million, Tanzania 3.6 million, Algeria 2.9 million, Ethiopia 1.7 million, Angola 1.4 million and Mozambique about 964,000.
Industry records indicate that Nigeria had about 10 domestic airlines in 2021, serving more than 12 million passengers. By 2025, the number of operating carriers had grown to more than 15, yet domestic passenger traffic had declined by about 12.5 per cent to 10.5 million.
The increase in operators has come despite the exit of some carriers, including Azman Air and Dana Air, with newer entrants joining established airlines such as Air Peace, Arik Air, Aero Contractors, Ibom Air, Green Africa, Overland Airways, United Nigeria Airlines, ValueJet, Max Air, XeJet, Enugu Air, Rano Air, Nigerian Eagles, Cally Air and others.
Aviation stakeholders attribute the decline in passenger numbers largely to worsening economic conditions rather than insufficient airline capacity. Rising inflation, currency depreciation and declining disposable incomes have significantly reduced the number of Nigerians who can afford air travel, while higher operating costs have forced airlines to raise ticket prices sharply.
Domestic airfares have risen dramatically over the past few years. Routes that attracted base fares of about ₦50,000 in 2022 now cost well above ₦100,000, with some peak fares exceeding ₦200,000. Current one-way fares between Lagos and Abuja range from about ₦113,000 to ₦180,000, depending on the airline and booking period.
Operators have blamed the fare increases on soaring aviation fuel prices, exchange rate volatility and higher maintenance costs. The recent disruption to global fuel supply, triggered by tensions in the Middle East and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz, has further pushed up the cost of Jet A1, adding pressure to airline operating expenses.
The industry has also witnessed a decline in corporate travel, traditionally one of the most profitable market segments for airlines. Many businesses have reduced travel budgets in response to economic pressures, increasingly replacing physical meetings with virtual engagements, thereby weakening demand for premium air travel.
Despite the slow passenger growth, the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) has continued issuing Air Operator Certificates (AOCs) to new airlines. Director-General of Civil Aviation, Capt. Chris Najomo, recently disclosed that the authority has approved between seven and eight new AOCs within the past six months while reducing the certification process from several years to between six and nine months as part of efforts to improve the ease of doing business without compromising safety standards.
Some aviation experts, however, believe the market may be approaching saturation. Former Rector of the Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), Capt. Samuel Caulcrick, warned that increasing the number of airlines without corresponding passenger growth could erode profitability across the industry and lead to business failures.
He argued that while competition is essential in a market economy, regulators must also consider the industry’s long-term sustainability, noting that airlines are competing for an almost unchanged passenger base. According to him, shrinking profit margins could eventually compel government intervention to limit the number of operators.
Retired Group Captain John Ojikutu also expressed concern, saying the imbalance between airline capacity and passenger demand is already contributing to more flight delays and cancellations. He urged regulators to consider market realities before issuing additional operating licences, noting that the industry’s projected passenger growth has yet to materialise.
As airlines continue expanding fleets and networks amid weak demand, industry observers say balancing competition with commercial sustainability will remain one of the biggest challenges facing Nigeria’s aviation sector.
