The global aviation industry experienced a significant setback in April 2026 as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered a sharp decline in passenger traffic, according to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Global passenger demand, measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK), fell by 3.4 per cent compared to April 2025, marking one of the most notable downturns recorded since the industry’s post-pandemic recovery. However, beneath the headline figures lies a more nuanced story, particularly for Africa and several other regions that continued to record growth despite prevailing geopolitical tensions.
According to IATA, the sharp contraction was largely driven by a 46.6 per cent collapse in demand among Middle Eastern carriers as ongoing hostilities and disruptions in the region severely affected air travel. Excluding the Middle East, global demand would have recorded a 1.2 per cent increase, underscoring the extent to which the conflict distorted industry performance.
International passenger demand declined by 5.3 per cent year-on-year, while capacity fell by 5.1 per cent. Nevertheless, when Middle Eastern traffic is excluded, international demand actually grew by 1.9 per cent, indicating that air travel demand remained fundamentally resilient across most global markets.
Africa emerged as one of the regions demonstrating steady growth amid the turbulence. African airlines recorded a 2.2 per cent increase in passenger demand compared to April 2025, while capacity expanded by 1.2 per cent. The region’s load factor improved to 77.9 per cent, representing a 0.7 percentage point increase over the previous year.
The performance highlights the growing strength of African aviation markets, driven by expanding intra-African connectivity, increased business travel, and sustained economic activity across key markets on the continent.
Elsewhere, Latin America posted the strongest growth globally, with demand increasing by 8.9 per cent and capacity rising by 7.2 per cent. Asia-Pacific carriers also maintained positive momentum, recording a 3.0 per cent increase in passenger demand despite a slowdown on the Japan-China corridor caused by ongoing political tensions. The region achieved a record April load factor of 87.5 per cent.
European airlines recorded a modest 0.9 per cent growth in passenger traffic, benefiting from a significant 15.3 per cent increase in direct traffic between Europe and Asia as travellers increasingly avoided Middle Eastern transit routes.
North American airlines remained largely unchanged, reporting flat demand growth, while Middle Eastern carriers experienced the steepest decline globally. Passenger demand among airlines in the region plunged by 48.1 per cent, while capacity fell by 38.4 per cent. Load factors dropped to 70.1 per cent, reflecting the profound impact of the ongoing Iran-related conflict despite a fragile ceasefire that helped slow the pace of decline compared to previous months.
Domestic markets also reflected mixed fortunes. Overall domestic demand remained unchanged from April 2025 levels, with growth in Brazil, China and Japan offset by declines in Australia, India and the United States.
Commenting on the figures, IATA Director General Willie Walsh described the situation as highly volatile, noting that the conflict’s impact extended beyond passenger demand.
“The 46.6 per cent fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down 3.4 per cent. The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand,” Walsh said.
The latest figures underscore both the vulnerability and resilience of global aviation. While geopolitical crises continue to disrupt traditional traffic flows and airline operations, regions such as Africa are demonstrating an ability to sustain growth through diversification, increased connectivity and evolving travel demand patterns.
For Africa, the April results offer further evidence that the continent’s aviation sector is gradually strengthening its position within the global air transport ecosystem, even as international markets navigate one of the industry’s most challenging operating environments in recent years.
