Africa’s passenger aviation market is projected to nearly triple over the next two decades, creating demand for 1,640 new passenger aircraft by 2045, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast.
The forecast, released by the European aircraft manufacturer, estimates that African airlines will require 1,310 single-aisle aircraft and 330 widebody jets to accommodate rising passenger numbers, expanding trade and growing tourism.
Passenger traffic to, from and within Africa is expected to grow at an annual compound rate of 4.9% between 2025 and 2045, making the continent the world’s second-fastest-growing aviation market after Asia.
Ethiopia is expected to record particularly strong growth, with passenger traffic originating from and destined for the country projected to increase almost sixfold over the period. Annual trips per capita are also forecast to rise by 150% in Ethiopia by 2045, while Nigeria and South Africa are each expected to record a 100% increase.
Airbus attributed the projected expansion to favourable demographic and economic trends. Africa’s population is expected to increase by 720 million to more than two billion by 2045, while its middle-class population is projected to grow by 180 million. The continent’s urban population is also forecast to rise by 450 million, representing 47% of the overall population.
The manufacturer projects that real gross domestic product and trade will grow at annual rates of 4% and 3.9%, respectively, between 2025 and 2045, supporting demand for air travel and stronger regional connections.
Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East, said aviation could play a significant role in the continent’s economic development by connecting communities, facilitating regional trade and creating opportunities for shared prosperity.
Air connectivity across Africa has already expanded considerably, with overall capacity to, from and within the continent more than doubling between 2005 and 2025, according to the forecast.
Tourism and trade are expected to remain important drivers of future growth. Greater visa openness, fifth-freedom traffic rights and regional trade integration could make travel between African countries easier, while implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area and investment in airport and regional infrastructure are expected to support connectivity and access to tourism destinations.
The projected demand is also expected to accelerate fleet modernisation. Airbus forecasts that latest-generation aircraft will account for 65% of Africa’s fleet by 2035, compared with 30% in 2025, potentially improving fuel efficiency and supporting the aviation industry’s long-term sustainability goals.
The outlook points to substantial opportunities for airlines and aviation infrastructure providers, while highlighting the need for investment in aircraft, airports and regional connectivity to accommodate the continent’s expanding demand for air transport.
