Nigeria’s aviation industry is heading into 2026 at a crossroads, shaped by three years of declining domestic traffic and resilient international growth. FAAN’s data paints a picture of an industry in transition, but also one facing mounting structural risks if current trends persist.
The contraction of domestic passenger traffic, down nearly 14 per cent since 2022, has significant implications for airline sustainability. Domestic airlines rely heavily on high-frequency local routes to generate cash flow, yet rising fuel costs, multiple taxes, FX exposure, and regulatory bottlenecks have eroded profitability. Industry executives estimate that domestic passenger volumes have fallen by as much as three million since 2022, despite latent demand for air travel.
This has resulted in route rationalisation, fleet downsizing, and limited network expansion by Nigerian carriers. As fewer airlines dominate the market, five carriers now control roughly 75 per cent of domestic traffic, competition has weakened, further constraining affordability and innovation.
International growth, while positive for airport revenue and global connectivity, presents its own challenges. Much of the expansion has been captured by foreign airlines, not Nigerian carriers, raising concerns about capital flight and missed opportunities for local industry development. Nigeria continues to invest billions in airport infrastructure, yet declining domestic utilisation raises questions about the efficiency and return on those investments.
Looking ahead to 2026, the data suggests that Nigeria’s aviation recovery will remain incomplete unless domestic travel is deliberately revitalised. Policy interventions may need to focus on reducing fiscal charges, stabilising access to foreign exchange, encouraging new domestic entrants, and improving regional connectivity through secondary airports.
At the same time, the growth of airports such as Owerri and Enugu offers a glimpse of what targeted regional development could achieve. These markets demonstrate that demand exists outside Lagos and Abuja if pricing and connectivity are viable.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s aviation sector in 2026 will be defined by how effectively it balances international growth with domestic recovery. Without reforms, the industry risks becoming increasingly skewed toward outbound international travel, leaving local airlines weakened and domestic mobility constrained. With the right policy alignment, however, Nigeria could convert its international momentum into a more inclusive and sustainable aviation ecosystem.
