Boeing has projected strong, sustained demand for commercial aircraft over the next two decades, with a need for 43,600 new airplanes through 2044. The company’s 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), released ahead of the Paris Air Show, highlights the pivotal role of emerging markets, which are set to drive a significant share of global air traffic growth due to expanding middle classes, competitive airline networks, and continued aviation investment.
The outlook suggests that global airplane supply will catch up with demand by the end of the decade, enabling airlines to more easily renew and expand their fleets. Boeing noted that passenger traffic is projected to grow 4.2% annually over the next 20 years—more than doubling in size and continuing to outpace global economic growth. As a result, the global commercial fleet will nearly double to over 49,600 aircraft.
About 80% of in-service airplanes will be replaced during this period, with more than 21,000 deliveries aimed at improving efficiency and capability. Single-aisle aircraft, driven by short-haul travel and the expansion of low-cost carriers, will make up 72% of the global fleet by 2044, compared to 66% in 2024. Meanwhile, the passenger widebody fleet will grow to about 8,320 aircraft, nearly doubling from roughly 4,400 in 2024, with much of that expansion coming from carriers in emerging markets.
Freight operations will also see substantial growth. The global freighter fleet is expected to expand by nearly two-thirds, with demand for 2,900 new production and converted freighters, fuelled by the need for supply chain diversification and growing express cargo networks.
Boeing highlighted key trends shaping aviation, including the fact that airline networks now serve 30% more airport pairs than a decade ago, providing passengers with more direct, non-stop flight options. Travel spending as a share of discretionary income has returned to pre-pandemic levels, showing that air travel remains a high priority for consumers.
“Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing’s senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”
